I suspect we’ll know a lot more about what happened here by tomorrow. But I wanted to comment on one aspect of what happened this evening in the skies of Israel. One theory appears to be that Iran fired a series of drones and missiles that it knew Israel would be able to intercept in the vast majority of cases. In other words, they can deliver a seemingly violent blow (good for restoring honor/credibility), but knowing that the blow won’t really land. They can thus avoid a regional war/escalation.
Earlier this evening I was thinking something like this. But the more I hear, the less credible it seems. Current reports suggest that Iran has fired some three hundred aerial devices, both missiles and drones, at Israel. A significant number of these were surface-to-surface missiles. The United States appears to have shot down more than a hundred using anti-missile destroyers in the Eastern Mediterranean and warplanes intercepting them from the air. Some of the most technical reports I’ve seen explain how U.S. destroyers could specifically augment Israel’s ballistic missile defenses. So it’s not just a matter of adding more defenses to what Israel has, and not just better ones, but of connecting the two, so to speak, to create something much stronger.
Let me add an important caveat: I am of course not an expert on missile warfare. But I disagree that Iran fired so much material and was confident that few, if any, would find their targets in Israel. The United States also appears to have played a very large role in the outcome, perhaps as much as a third of the shootings, while other Arab states will likely shoot down a small number themselves. If this was just a performative light show, I don’t think there would be a need for the United States to get so involved.
What this all boils down to is that Iran has really hit Israel hard but appears to have failed almost completely. I’m not sure this totally fits me. But at least for now, it seems more credible to me than the other theory.