For many observers, the election of Rep. Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House moves the Republican Party closer to a “full MAGA” takeover, that is, more fully aligned with the former and can -to be future president Donald Trump.
President Johnson’s conservative record, centered on his deep Southern Baptist faith, places him squarely in the dominant wing of the party. But it was the Louisianan’s unwavering support for former President Trump, including organizing an amicus brief to the Supreme Court challenging the 2020 election results in four states, that really won Mr. Johnson his title of “Make America Great Again”.
Why we wrote this
President Donald Trump nicknamed the new president “MAGA Mike.” But the narrative around Mike Johnson may not be so simple. It reflects trends within the Republican Party that preceded Mr. Trump’s arrival.
However, one should not overlook the exhaustion that set in after three other presidential candidates caught fire, political analysts say. Perhaps most importantly, Mr. Johnson’s election reflects trends within the Republican Party that long predate the rise of Mr. Trump and the MAGA movement.
“The Republican Party has been to some extent a conservative party, a rural party and a Christian right party for quite some time,” says Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Center for Ethics and Public Policy. “Johnson’s elevation reflects that.”
For many observers, the election of Rep. Mike Johnson as Speaker of the House moves the Republican Party closer to a “full MAGA” takeover, that is, more fully aligned with the former and can -to be future president Donald Trump.
President Johnson’s conservative record, centered on his deep Southern Baptist faith, places him squarely in the dominant wing of the party. But it was the Louisianan’s unwavering support for former President Trump, including organizing an amicus brief to the Supreme Court challenging the 2020 election results in four states, that really won Mr. Johnson his title of “Make America Great Again”.
Indeed, Mr. Trump and Republican Party flamethrower Matt Gaetz, the Florida congressman who called the vote that ousted then-President Kevin McCarthy, immediately dubbed the new president “MAGA Mike “.
Why we wrote this
President Donald Trump nicknamed the new president “MAGA Mike.” But the narrative around Mike Johnson may not be so simple. It reflects trends within the Republican Party that preceded Mr. Trump’s arrival.
But the narrative around Mr Johnson’s sudden emergence from obscurity may not be so simple. The exhaustion that emerged after three other presidential candidates caught fire shouldn’t be overlooked, political analysts say. Mr Johnson’s friendly demeanor and lack of enemies were also key to his success, with every Republican present voting for him – including all 18 members from districts who had voted for Joe Biden in 2020.
But perhaps most importantly, Mr. Johnson’s election reflects trends within the Republican Party that long predate the rise of Mr. Trump and the MAGA movement.
“[Mr. Johnson] represents the culmination of the revolt against the old Republican establishment that began with the Tea Party in 2009,” says William Galston, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution and a former domestic policy adviser in the Clinton White House.
The Tea Party movement, focused on lower taxes and smaller government, fueled large Republican gains in the House in the 2010 midterm elections. And, Mr. Galston says, it “signaled the fact that the base of the Republican Party was not satisfied with what the Republican leaders were offering them.”
Mr. Trump drew on this same rebellious, anti-establishment philosophy to rise to the presidency. Recent Republican House speakers — before, during and after Mr. Trump’s term — have all grappled with the party’s disparate factions, with some calling for resignations out of exasperation or, as in Mr. McCarthy’s case, ideologically flexible, to lose the presidency to parties far away. -good colleagues.
Jose Luis Magana/AP
New speaker reflects GOP
Which brings us back to Mr. Johnson.
“The Republican Party has been to some extent a conservative party, a rural party and a Christian right party for quite some time,” says Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Center for Ethics and Public Policy. “Johnson’s elevation reflects that.”
Mr. Johnson’s MAGA credentials illustrate how the party has evolved to reflect its base, Mr. Olsen says. “But I don’t think this event” — Mr. Johnson’s election to the presidency — “proves that this is the party of Trump.”
Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee spokesman, gives Mr. Trump no credit for electing Mr. Johnson to the House speakership.
“He supported him when it was clear he was going to win,” Mr. Heye says. “Trump does this a lot.”
Mr. Trump also has a history of jumping on the wrong horse. Mr. Olsen notes past examples of Trump-backed candidates losing, whether in House or Senate primaries or in the just-concluded presidential race. The former president had supported Rep. Jim Jordan, the firebrand Ohio Republican — a candidacy that failed in three successive rounds of voting, with GOP opposition growing with each subsequent vote, before he ended. finally withdraws.
Yet even though Mr. Trump can’t dictate as speaker of the House or act like a puppeteer — a skill he may not possess — he still dominates the party like no one else. He is the overwhelming favorite for the GOP nomination for president in 2024.
At the same time, the MAGA label has become a convenient shorthand for political actors of all stripes. Liberals want to call Mr. Johnson a Trumpist. And Mr. Trump and his allies want to own Mr. Johnson’s victory and ensure that he does not stray from the MAGA fold in his dealings with Republicans, House Democrats and President Biden.
As president, Mr. Johnson operates under the same razor-thin margin of control as Mr. McCarthy and the same “motion to nullify” rule that allows any member to request a vote to impeach the president. On Monday, Ohio GOP Rep. Max Miller presented a resolution calling for a change to this rule.
Mr. Johnson is already tested – no honeymoon for this speaker – with limited experience in congressional leadership. He is just in his fourth two-year term, and the higher he went previously he was vice chairman of the GOP conference, the party’s seventh leader.
David Becker/AP
Follow the MAGA playbook
So far, the new speaker seems to be playing it safe. He’s following the MAGA playbook, separating aid to Israel (which MAGA wants) from aid to Ukraine (which MAGA doesn’t want) in a $105 billion supplemental funding bill.
Mr Johnson’s big test will come on November 17, when Congress’s funding for the federal government runs out. If there is a shutdown and the public blames Republicans, it could hurt the party’s chances of regaining the presidency in 2024.
It is also in mid-November that the personal skills of the new speaker could become crucial. The Senate minority leader, Republican Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, comes from the old establishment wing of the party, and if he and Mr. Johnson can find a way to work together, it could greatly help the Party republican to build a reputation for effective governance. .
Mr. Johnson’s bipartisan negotiating skills could prove just as crucial. A day after he was elected president, he attended a meeting at the White House with Mr. Biden on aid to Israel and Ukraine. The new president’s decision to support separate legislation for funding America’s allies in both wars, including expense offsets for financing Israel’s battle against Hamasdemonstrates his challenge to maintain his MAGA credentials.
But above all, Mr. Johnson’s gentle personality could be the key if he is to succeed as House speaker.
“Temperamental mannerisms,” says Mr. Heye. The battle for speaker “was a long, drawn-out, stupid process, but eventually someone emerged who was fairly representative of the House Republican conference.”